"3G will lead to economic disaster" arguments, mainly around the three areas: market demand, investment orientation and development across 3G 4G. The so-called "unknown reason do not argue, do not speak clear feeling." Academic nature should view this debate out of a 3 level and length.
On Demand
Kan Kaili view:
"In our country, should not be on 3G, the most important issues which demand is a serious shortage of 3G, which has been fully proved by the fact that many domestic and foreign."
"In the U.S., the European 3G operators in more than 80% of revenue still comes from voice and 99% of businesses can be completed by the 2G systems, resulting in the loss of 3G operators. In China, Unicom's CDMA1X international 灏辨槸 3G system provides almost all the 3G services, but demand is very small, is also a serious loss. "
Rebuttal comments:
"Communication World" director and editor in chief of items Li Gang: "3G is a completely new technology, 2G, 2.5G, 2.75G with essential difference. China's first time on communication, a mobile phone of a 20 000 dollars, many people that there is no market, but the market is changing, the network price is now down more than 10 times the phone fell to 1,000 yuan. If in 2006 on 3G, with the present level of income, now 3G terminal price will still be people that do not market However, the 3G market in 2006 will certainly be change. "
MII telecom expert Dr. Chen Kai: "3G is a market, but also on many other factors, such as business rates, mobile phone prices, the user's level of education, the region's economic development level. From the current status of mobile development is not difficult to analyze, some developed regions, high-end users, fashion people in need on the 3G is in the affirmative. Therefore, can not simply say yes or no demand for 3G. "
Tsinghua University Professor Gao Xudong: "I think there is definitely a demand, the key is the size of the problems and needs time. From the world's development, the demand for 3G is not the original thought is good, but in Japan, South Korea also has a good of development. "
Investment of
Kan Kaili view:
"Insufficient demand will bring serious loss of carriers, which in China's telecommunications industry is an indisputable consensus. 3G operators around the world situation is still serious losses, the profitability of 3G in China will be even more remote, and even its survival are worrying. "
"Therefore, we must seriously consider the urgent need to promote our country and certainly not a serious loss of 3G, will be put into this 600 billion pairs of China mean? This has not only economic, but political issues, is to not on the fundamental interests of broad masses of people responsible principles. "
Rebuttal comments:
School of Economics and Management Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Professor Lv Tingjie: Over the past two years, China's telecommunications network investment is 200 billion yuan on average, the money sooner or later to vote, a loss is hard to say. "Technology is the engine of the economy, any advances in technology will not lead to economic disaster. In Western countries, whether the moon program, or a planet program, it is by constantly introducing new technologies to promote industrial development. on 3G, also have this meaning. "
CATR, deputy chief engineer Yang Peifang: "3G operators will operate short-term risk. The industry that goes: 'the new technology is to court death, not a new technology is to die.' But the court death there is a chance, If the die is 100 percent dead. "
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Professor of Economics and Management, Competitiveness and the IT Centre for Economic Research has Jian-qiu: "3G is the national strategic needs, whether China's economic development or promote the industry chain, there has been immeasurable effect This is not how much money to use the investment evaluation. "
Ericsson Greater China, Deputy General Manager of Marketing and Strategic Planning Lu Yong: "3G is a multiplier of national economy. The new 3G 'Ecosystem' involved in many aspects of the economy than just the value generated in the telecommunications industry, much more . "
Date of
Kan Kaili view:
"3G at the moment, is already an obsolete technology, totally should be to all IP wireless broadband networks to develop, transition, now more than 40 countries and regions are changing. All IP can replace 3G, and more than 3G has a much higher cost. "
Rebuttal comments:
Ministry of Information Communication Technology Committee members, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Song Junde: "I do not agree beyond 3G. From the theory, practice up analysis, I think that 3G is not a disaster. 3G is not beyond stage one, can not look to the mobile communication Generation 5. So I feel a bit anxious, Professor Kan. I found, against 3G, and regarded WiMAX expectations set too high. I am neutral, I think that should not be worried. "
MII telecom expert Dr. Chen Kai: "should be on 3G, or should be directly on the 4G, or other more advanced techniques, depending on the specific development of individual countries reality, can not be generalized. From the current 3G human, material and financial input of view, it seems unlikely to bypass 3G. If you do a bold assumption that China has now decided not on the 3G, who have paid all responsibility? "
Tsinghua University Professor Gao Xudong: "Technology development, especially in technical applications have continuity, we can not be compared directly to stride from the primitive communist society. Therefore, the development of 3G is necessary, even essential, not because of better technology in the future there will not be on 3G. "
Institute of CATR new communication and information technology, vice president of new business research Zheng Youqiang: "Mobile WIMAX and 3G business has some overlap, but the business does not mean that the two technologies overlap completely alternative relationship. Now , can bring more speed 3G standard HSDPA, EVDO which is being implemented, I believe they will give a speed 3G. "
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